A particular problem with the CPU power they consume and, consequently, the heat they generate. When we used 4GHz Pentium chips with the old NetBurst architecture, some might have predicted that chips would be common to 128GHz date.
However, the problem of overheating means today’s PCs now have lower clock speeds – usually 3GHz – but they have two or more processor cores, often with each core running two son.
As physicist Niels Bohr quipped, “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” However, in calculating the figures are becoming a fairly predictable. It was the most famous summarized by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in what has come to be known as Moore’s Law. On 19 April 1965 Electronics magazine, Moore noted that the number of components on a chip doubles every year for about the same cost, and in 1975 he changed every two years. If Moore’s Law holds, then we can predict the computers of 2020 by multiplying the specifications of today’s 32 (2 to the power of 5).
Moore’s Law is not a scientific law as the law of gravity, it’s just an observation. It works in part because the technology companies use to determine the nature of products they should be able to develop and when. But the laws of physics and economics intrusion.
Doubling the number of transistors on a chip requires now working at ever smaller, and spend billions of dollars on factories to produce them. My figures are underestimated by the extent to which I think reality can not find Moore’s Law.
What type of PC you have in 2020? If you have not thought before, take a few minutes to stick some numbers on the back of an envelope and see if we agree ….
If we look at the desktop, I think a decent machine will have a 4GHz quad-core processor, 128 GB, 4 GB of video memory, a 20 TB hard drive and a Blu-ray. The screen will be a 24 – or 25-inch flat screen, and it will be OLED so we’re lucky. I do not know if it will be 3D. My price range is estimated at £ 499 – £ 599. Come back in 10 years and see if I was right.
